Orbán threatens to blow up Ukraine policy as EU leaders meet in Brussels

Momentous decisions on whether to formally open membership negotiations with the war-torn nation and approve a €50-billion special fund in long-term support, which is pegged to a broader review of the common EU budget, are expected to be taken.

Relations with other candidate countries, such as Moldova, Georgia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the war between Israel and Hamas, the situation at the Finland-Russia border, migration, security and defence will also be on the packed agenda.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has cast himself as the summit’s main protagonist by mounting a fierce opposition campaign to prevent accession talks with Ukraine and halt any further provisions of financial and military assistance. Both consequential decisions require the unanimity of the 27 member states and are therefore vulnerable to national vetoes.

Orbán’s combative push has played out across public speeches, billboard campaigns, social media posts, newspaper interviews and not one but two letters personally addressed to European Council President Charles Michel.

“Even when there are some differences or divergences, it’s important to respect everyone and to see how we can build a united position because we are strong when we are united,” Michel said on Wednesday.

“It’s not a secret that this European Council is a difficult one, but I do not give up and we will work a lot in the hours to come. And I count on the sense of collective responsibility on all sides to make us stronger,” he added.

Among his numerous grievances, the Hungarian premier has sharply criticised the European Commission’s assessment of Ukraine’s readiness to join the bloc. According to the executive, Kyiv has “fully” met four of the seven reforms necessary to kick-start negotiations, with work underway in the fields of anti-corruption, de-oligarchisation and the rights of minorities. 

Orbán has called the assessment “unfounded and poorly prepared” and said the eventual accession of Ukraine would deprive Hungary of billions in agricultural and cohesion funds. The premier has pitched a “strategic partnership” with Ukraine as an alternative to EU membership, even if full-time membership would take years to materialise.

“The European Union is about to make a terrible mistake, which must be prevented,” he said in an interview published ahead of the summit.

“In fact, Ukraine is not in a position to start accession negotiations but because of the war, for geostrategic, let’s say, political reasons, negotiations with (Ukraine) have to start. I think that’s a mistake.”

The debate on enlargement could be further hindered by a demand from the “Friends of the Western Balkans,” who are calling for Bosnia and Herzegovina to be treated on the same terms as Ukraine and be given the chance to open accession talks.

But the appeal from the coalition, which features Hungary, Austria and Czech Republic, among others, has been met with scepticism from Northern and Western countries, who believe Bosnia is nowhere close to fulfilling the reforms imposed by the Commission.

‘This is not a Hungarian bazaar’

Orbán has also taken exception to the proposed Ukraine Facility, a support programme made up of €33 billion in low-interest loans and €17 billion in non-repayable grants, claiming the money would fall prey to corruption and be impossible to track down.

The litany of complaints has left diplomats in Brussels wondering how to square the circle and prevent the Hungarian veto from blowing up the two-day summit. 

“Hungary is worried about the levels of corruption in Ukraine, which is interesting. I’ve heard them say they’re worried about the rule of law, which is also interesting. I haven’t heard them yet say they’re worried about LGBTQ rights,” quipped a senior diplomat.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, diplomats and officials acknowledge that a sort of deal has to be achieved at the end of the meeting, even if talks need to be extended into the weekend. The need to buttress the bloc’s financial support for Ukraine has become a political imperative as American aid is currently stuck in the US Congress.

“If we fail, it will be a serious blow,” said a diplomat from another country. “Negotiations are still ongoing. It’s very difficult. The support for Ukraine is of paramount importance.”

Orbán’s veto threat, however, is not the only stumbling block in the way of the Ukraine Facility: the €50-billion plan is part of a €100-billion review of the bloc’s multi-annual budget that the Commission has proposed to cope with challenges such as irregular migration, cutting-edge technology and rising interest rates.

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Brussels wants member states to put €66 billion of fresh cash on the table, a bill that a vast majority of capitals has categorically rejected. The talks between heads of state and government will decide how much money will be paid out and how much will be redeployed from other programmes in the current EU budget.

The bargaining is poised to be intense and fractious: Southern countries like Italy and Greece want to preserve funds for migration, while frugal-minded states like Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden demand a Ukraine-only budget.

The latest compromise speaks of fresh money to the tune of €22 to €25 billion, backed by redeployments and savings in other areas. STEP, a proposed €10-billion platform to finance tech projects, is widely expected to be cut down to the bare minimum.

Making matters more awkward for leaders, the budget talks come amid fears that Orbán will attempt a quid-pro-quo to secure full access to Hungary’s cohesion and recovery funds, frozen last year over persistent rule-of-law concerns. The Commission approved on Wednesday the release of up to €10.2 billion in cohesion funds, leaving more than €20 billion firmly blocked. Budapest has asked for the entire pot of cash to be unfrozen.

“We should be clear: this is not a Hungarian bazaar where anything can be traded for something else,” said Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo. 

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Should Orbán insist on that trade-off path, diplomats are already preparing alternatives to build a parallel scheme, backed by 26 member states, to provide financial support for Ukraine without interruptions. Kyiv faces a budget deficit of about €40 billion in 2024 and Brussels, as of now, only has one payment left to make.

“It is important to listen to everybody’s concerns regarding these points that we have to decide and I hope that in the end, we will reach an agreement,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, one of the leaders who has in recent days reached out to Orbán in a bid to avoid a catastrophic summit.

“But right now, I am not that optimistic in this regard.”