ISW: Ukraine has managed to significantly curtail Russia’s activities in the Black Sea

Russian officials and state media largely refrained from publicly discussing the two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely in an effort to avoid addressing Russia’s failure to achieve its stated war aims at significant human costs, – ISW says.

As the end of February also marks the 10th anniversary of Russia’s invasion and the consequent illegal annexation of Crimea, the UK defence ministry says: Russia’s tactics against Ukraine’s creative warfare on the Black Sea are falling short.

At the outset of the full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Russian Navy maintained the freedom to manoeuvre throughout the entirety of the Black Sea, most significantly in the north west.

Following Ukraine’s success in employing asymmetric alternatives to its lack of a traditional navy – like guided missiles and uncrewed vessels – the Russian Navy has been repeatedly forced to reassess its appetite for risk.

Ukraine has continued to push Russian threat perception to new highs through combined strike activities on land and the sea, forcing the Black Sea Fleet units to relocate their main operating areas o the eastern Black Sea.

This UK defence map shows Russia’s main maritime operational areas in the Blacks sea:

The 1st area is where the Black sea Fleet is operating at lower risk.

The 2nd – at increased risk,

The 3rd at higher risk and here, the 4th area is where the Black Sea operations are denied.

Britain’s defence minister, Grant Shapps, said in late December that Russia had lost 20% of its Black Sea fleet in the previous four months. At a strategic level, Ukraine’s approach has denied Russia the ability to interfere with its maritime trade routes